The Washington Post reports on the rise of so-called ‘zombie stocks’ — stocks that continue to be traded well after falling out of compliance with Securities and Exchange Commission requirements. Continue reading
Check out my Prawfs post on feedback loop technology here.
Well, this should be interesting to watch. The US Supreme Court’s recent decision in Brown v. Plata indicates that California will likely have to drastically reduce its prison population rather drastically over the next couple years Approximately 32,000 inmates must be released to comport with the Court’s close-vote decision which found that the state’s overpopulated prisons were Constitutionally problematic. One upside for the state will be incarceration cost savings – if we assume that each prisoner costs about $50,000/year to incarcerate – a relatively modest estimate – then this means a cost savings of 1.6 billion dollars annually to the state. Yes, that’s billion, not million. On the other hand, we can imagine that there may be significant collateral costs to the state and that these costs may simply be shifted to other entities (expanded demands on policing, local jails, etc.). Given the changing face of California incarceration outlined in this study (document), it will be interesting to see how they go about determining who to release.
The recent issue of Perspectives on Politics included a review of our book, “Presidential Rhetoric and the Public Agenda: Constructing the War on Drugs” by Diana Owen (Georgetown University). Here’s a selected passage:
In this important study, Andrew B. Whitford and Jeff Yates move beyond the standard focus on persuasion and build upon the established theoretical frameworks of “agenda setting” and “going public.” They explore the ways in which presidential rhetoric can not only shape opinion but also can influence policy implementation and bureaucratic action. Focusing their analysis on drug policy, the authors demonstrate that presidents can exert leadership authority and change the behavior of even entrenched administrative constituencies through public rhetoric. The detailed case study provides rich historical context documenting presidential administrations’ responses to the “war on drugs” dating back to the 1930s. The authors use a multimethod approach in order to provide empirical evidence that supports their argument that persuasion can translate into action. This study establishes a new benchmark for research on presidential rhetoric.
Describes the characteristics of human trafficking investigations, suspects, and victims in cases opened by federally funded task forces between January 2008 and June 2010. This report provides information about investigations, persons involved in suspected and confirmed incidents of human trafficking, and case outcomes. Data are from the Human Trafficking Reporting System (HTRS), which was created in response to a congressional mandate in the Trafficking Victims Protection Reauthorization Act of 2005 for biennial reporting on the scope and characteristics of human trafficking. HTRS is currently the only system that captures information on human trafficking investigations conducted by state and local law enforcement agencies in the United States. The report also describes HTRS data collection procedures and data quality issues.
Highlights include the following:
- Federally funded task forces opened 2,515 suspected incidents of human trafficking for investigation between January 2008 and June 2010.
- About 8 in 10 of the suspected incidents of human trafficking were classified as sex trafficking, and about 1 in 10 incidents were classified as labor trafficking.
- The confirmed human trafficking incidents open for at least a year led to 144 known arrests.
Anthony Bertelli (USC) and Christian Grose (USC) have posted “The Lengthened Shadow of Another Institution? Ideal Point Estimates for the Executive Branch and Congress “ on SSRN. It will soon be appearing the American Journal of Political Science. Here’s the abstract:
While the president’s relationship to Congress has been carefully studied, the broader executive branch has received far less attention in that context. Scholars rely on assumptions about the relationship between the president and cabinet departments that remain untested. We construct the first statistical portrait of executive branch ideology by estimating ideal points for members of Congress, presidents, and the heads of cabinet-level departments between 1991-2004 in a Bayesian framework. We empirically assess claims about the composition of the president’s administrative team and the influence of institutions on the ideology of principal executive decision-makers. We also test an important claim regarding the tradeoff between ideological congruence and budgetary authority to demonstrate the utility of our estimates for other scholars. Our analysis reveals a new picture of the executive branch as ideologically diverse, casting into doubt some essential assumptions in a substantial body of work on the separation of powers.
Check it out here. H/T ELS blog and Michael Heise. Continue reading
The Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act (Brady Act) requires criminal history background checks by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and state agencies on persons who attempt to purchase a firearm from a licensed dealer. In 2009, the FBI and state agencies denied a firearm to nearly 133,000 persons due to National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) records of felonies, domestic violence offenses, and other prohibiting factors. Enforcement of the Brady Act, 2009 reports on investigations and prosecutions of persons who were denied a firearm in 2009. The report describes how the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) screens denied-person cases and retrieves firearms that were obtained illegally. Statistics presented include charges most often filed against denied persons by United States Attorneys and results of prosecutions. Investigation statistics from two states are also presented. Key statistics are compared for the years 2009 and 2008.
Highlights include the following:
- From 2002 to 2009, the rate of nonfatal workplace violence has declined by 35%, following a 62% decline in the rate from 1993 to 2002.
- Between 2005 and 2009, law enforcement officers, security guards, and bartenders had the highest rates of nonfatal workplace violence.
- Among workplace homicides that occurred between 2005 and 2009, about 28% involved victims in sales and related occupations and about 17% involved victims in protective service occupations.
Blue is most peaceful; red is least peaceful.
The minds behind the Global Peace Index have now put an index together for the US states. I really thought that Oklahoma would have scored better – what with the farmer and the cowman being friends and all …. See the index in table form below the fold (h/t buzzfeed). Continue reading
Posted in Data, Jeff, Policy, politics, Pop Culture
New from TRAC:
The data show that during fiscal years 2008, 2009 and 2010, and the first three months of FY 2011, just over half of federal mortgage fraud prosecutions — 1,038 out of a total of 2,015 nationally — were filed in only ten of the nation’s 90-plus districts.
Leading the pack: South Florida, Nevada, Western PA, Southern NY, and Southern Cal.
New from BJS:
Presents findings on civil trials concluded in 2005 in a national sample of state trial courts in which punitive damages were requested or awarded. This BJS report discusses rates of punitive damage requests or awards in major civil categories, such as intentional tort, automobile accident, medical malpractice, product liability, and employment discrimination. The report describes differences in punitive damage activity by different pairings of plaintiff and defendant litigants; highlights findings on punitive damage award amounts; examines ratios of compensatory to punitive damage awards; and compares punitive damages in bench and jury trials. Lastly, it presents information on plaintiff and defendant post-trial and appellate activity in civil trials with punitive damages.
Highlights include the following:
- Litigants sought punitive damages in 12% of the estimated 25,000 civil trials concluded in 2005.
- Plaintiffs received punitive damages in 30% of the 1,761 civil trials in which these damages were requested and the plaintiff prevailed.
- The median punitive damage award was $64,000, and 13% of cases with punitive awards had damages of $1 million or more.
Corey Rayburn Young (John Marshall Law School) has posted “How Judges Decide: A Multidimensional Typology of Judicial Styles in the Federal Courts” on SSRN. Here’s the abstract: Continue reading
The author of “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable,” Nassim Nicholas Taleb, has posted “Why Did the Crises of 2008 Happen?” on SSRN. The paper “while a standalone invited essay written for a special crisis issue of New Political Economy – synthesizes the various technical documents by the author as related to the financial crisis. It can also be used as a technical companion to The Black Swan (2007-2010). “
I’ll summarize his causes of the crises here, but it is certainly worth reading for yourself (just 5 pages): Continue reading
Robert Sapolsky and an olive baboon share a quiet moment on the Talek River, July 2007 (Credit: John Heminway)
A lot, apparently. National Geographic has a fascinating look at stress via the research of Stanford neurobiologist Robert Sapolsky. Here’s a bit of it: Continue reading
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Posted in Academia, Data, Jeff, Policy, Pop Culture, Uncategorized
… detailed information on the sentences that felons receive in state courts nationwide and on characteristics of the felons. The survey excludes federal courts and state or local courts that do not adjudicate adult felony cases. The tables in this publication provide data on the number of felony offenders in state courts, sentences received, demographic characteristics of convicted felons, and types of convictions. The report also covers comparisons to felony sentences in federal courts, using data from the Federal Justice Statistics Program (FJSP). The 2006 NJRP was based on a sample of state courts in 300 counties selected to be nationally representative. The survey included only offenses that state penal codes defined as felonies. Felonies are widely defined as crimes with the potential of being punished by more than 1 year in prison. NJRP surveys have been conducted every 2 years since 1986.
Actually, it rarely is incredibly popular. But recently it hit its all-time low mark since its popularity started being systematically measured in the 1970s. Perhaps puzzling is why we don’t obsess over congress’s popularity as we do with the president – perhaps with the president it’s personal and with congress it’s just business. It will be interesting to see who fares relatively better as we move our way toward the 2012 elections – President Obama or congress. See more on NPR here.
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Posted in Data, Jeff, politics, Presidency
A recent paper posted to SSRN discusses conducting behavioral research with Amazon’s Mechanical Turk. What is the Mechanical Turk? Well, here’s some copy from Amazon:
A review of our book by Chad Murphy can be found in Political Communication. Here’s an excerpt: Continue reading
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Posted in Academia, Data, Jeff, Law, Methods, Policy, politics, Presidency, War on Drugs
Often times perception is arguably as important as reality. Indeed the perception of the Rule of Law may influence important real world outcomes. How do citizens come to perceive the viability of the Rule of Law in their country? In a recent paper we (myself, Andy Whitford and David Brown) address this concern. The title of the paper is “Perceptions of the Rule of Law: Evidence About the Impact of Judicial Insulation.” Check out the syllabus below and, of course, feel free to download the paper via SSRN here. Continue reading
Slate has an interesting article on the prison to poverty cycle — here’ s an excerpt: Continue reading
Brought to you by Walletpop [h/t to Keith Gaddie].
For the second year in a row, using exclusive data developed by Dr. Andrew Schiller’s team at NeighborhoodScout.com, and based on FBI data from all 17,000 local law enforcement agencies, WalletPop reveals the top 25 most dangerous neighborhoods with the highest predicted rates of violent crime in America.
See 21 to 25 below the fold and the rest at the link that follows. Continue reading
I would be remiss if I did not blog on how Binghamton University’s political science department fared in the recently released National Research Council rankings of Ph.D. programs. The Monkey Cage Blog does a more thorough job on discussing the rankings than I ever would (that’s their graphic above) and you can find their assessment here. Other places to look include Inside Higher Ed, Ph.D.org, and the Chronicle of Higher Education’s interactive graphing. The last one will become pay only soon. Suffice it to say, rankings are often controversial and people typically disagree with methodology, especially when results do not comport with preconceived notions.
The top *actual* causes of death and injury may surprise you. There is more data than you can every need on this topic at the CDC here. Below is a teaser – the top ten causes of death for 2007 by injury (total for all ages): Continue reading
New studies available from the Bureau of Justice Statistics:
State Public Defender Programs, 2007, which examines the provision of public defender services in the 22 states that had an entirely state-funded and state-administered indigent defense program in 2007.
County-based and Local Public Defender Offices, 2007, which examines the provision of public defender services in the 27 states and the District of Columbia in which indigent defense services were funded and administered by counties or local jurisdictions in 2007.
Recent chatter on NPR noted that there’s been a quiet revolution in the Obama Administration re immigration renewals (and prosecution of businesses breaking immigration laws, too). The data appear to confirm. Says TRAC:
Just released figures from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), however, show that during the first nine months of FY 2010, 279,035 non-U.S. citizens were removed* from the country as a result of ICE enforcement. This number is ten (10) percent more than the same period during FY 2008 — the last fiscal year of the Bush administration. This represents almost a doubling of the rate of removals that have taken place during the past five years.
New:
- From 2000 through 2007, local jail administrators reported 8,110 inmate deaths in custody. Deaths in jails increased each year, from 905 in 2000 to 1,103 in 2007.
- The mortality rate per 100,000 local jail inmates declined from 152 deaths per 100,000 inmates to 141 per 100,000 between 2000 and 2007, while the jail inmate population increased 31% from 597,226 to 782,592.
- Between 2000 and 2007, the suicide rates were higher in small jails than large jails. In jails holding 50 or fewer inmates, the suicide rate was 169 per 100,000; in the largest jails, the suicide rate was 27 per 100,000 inmates.
- The number of households with at least one member who experienced one or more types of identity theft increased 23% from 2005 to 2007.
- From 2005 to 2007, the number of households that experienced credit card theft increased by 31% and the number that experienced multiple types during the same episode increased by 37%.
- During the 6-month period in 2008 for which identity theft victimization data was collected as part of the regular NCVS, 3.3% of households discovered that at least one member had been a victim of one or more types of identity theft.
Women In Law Enforcement, 1987-2008:
Presents data from the Law Enforcement Management and Administrative Statistics (LEMAS) surveys, covering 1987 to 2007, and from the Census of Federal Law Enforcement Officers (FLEO), from 1996 to 2008. This data brief presents trends in the percent of law enforcement officers at the local, state, and federal level who are women. It compares the percent of female law enforcement officers in individual police departments with 2,000 or more sworn officers between 1997 and 2007. The report also provides the percent of female officers in 1998 and 2008 in specific federal agencies with 500 or more sworn officers.
From TRAC:
After several months of moderation, U.S. federal immigration prosecutions have returned to the high levels of last summer. According to the most recent figures released by the Department of Justice, there were 8,287 immigration prosecutions in March 2010, up 30 percent from February and more than in any month since July 2009.
What’s the over/under on the “Arizona effect”? A year? Less?
Since Richard is guest blogging this summer, I thought it might be a good time to highlight some of our co-authored work. Below is the abstract of an article we wrote a while back; you can download the article here. We plan to do some follow up research on this topic in the near future.
Politics and State Punitiveness in Black and WhiteAbstract:
Recent findings from the literature on imprisonment policy suggest that in addition to traditional social and economic variables, imprisonment rates are also strongly related to changes in the state political environment. In this study, we extend this literature by testing a theory of state punitiveness which posits that (1) the political environment of states influences the degree to which they incarcerate their citizens, and (2) the political determinants of state punitiveness may be conditional upon the racial sub-population being incarcerated. Our results suggest that increases in state political conservatism in recent decades have contributed to increases in both the growth in black imprisonment rates and black imprisonment disparity (relative to whites), but that these effects are, to a degree, tempered by countervailing political conditions.
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Posted in Academia, Data, Jeff, Law, Policy, politics, Richard Fording, War on Drugs
New from TRAC:
The dramatic post 9/11 surge in prosecutions that the government categorized as terrorism has undergone a four-fold decline, according to TRAC’s analysis of data from the Department of Justice. The data show that terrorism and internal security filings in court have dropped from an average of about 100 a month at their peak shortly after the attacks to a current level of just under 25 a month.
In the National Journal Magazine, Jonathan Rauch discusses a new book on such socioeconomic trends in the states – Red Families v. Blue Families: Legal Polarization and the Creation of Culture, by Naomi Cahn and June Carbon (Oxford University Press). Here’s an excerpt:
The country’s lowest divorce rate belongs to none other than Massachusetts, the original home of same-sex marriage. Palinites might wish that Massachusetts’s enviable marital stability were an anomaly, but it is not. The pattern is robust. States that voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in both 2004 and 2008 boast lower average rates of divorce and teenage childbirth than do states that voted for the Republican in both elections. (That is using family data for 2006 and 2007, the latest available. Continue reading
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Posted in Courts, Data, Jeff, Policy, politics, Pop Culture, Uncategorized
The NY Times carries an interesting story on this question, prompted perhaps by President Obama’s recent nomination of ‘liberal Berkeley law professor” Goodwin Liu to the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals. The Times turns to political scientists for empirical analysis of this proposition – I don’t know why the media would do this, surely Tucker Carlson, Keith Olbermann, or some other pundit was available to tell us whatever was passing through their tiny brain at the moment — it seems odd that they would turn to people who might have something insightful to say. Anyway, here are some excerpts:
Andrew D. Martin, a professor of political science at Washington University in St. Louis, said that his research suggested that the Second Circuit, based in New York, and the Third Circuit, based in Philadelphia, “are about as far left as the Ninth,” he said.
The Bush appointees, Mr. Martin said, had “caused the Ninth Circuit to drift back to the right a little bit.” Other circuits, especially the Fifth Circuit, based in New Orleans, and the Sixth, based in Ohio, are on the right. “The differences correspond to the local politics of those areas,” he said, and he argued that the attacks on the Ninth Circuit were politically motivated.
But wait, there’s more:
Susan B. Haire, an associate professor of political science at the University of Georgia, has done extensive research into the rate of reversal for the various circuits and said that, in fact, the reversal rates for the Ninth are generally higher than for other circuits. However, Ms. Haire noted that the Ninth hears far more cases than any other circuit.
It is by far the largest of the circuits, with nearly 30 active judges across nine Western states and two Pacific territories, and had more than 12,000 new cases filed in 2009.
In the context of the total volume of cases, she said reversals are “marginally higher than the other circuits, but such a teeny-tiny difference from a substantive perspective even if it is statistically significant, people might say that’s to be expected when you have such a high volume” of cases.
[h/t http://twitter.com/abwhitford]
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Posted in Courts, Data, Jeff, Law, Presidency, Uncategorized
You can find Kirk’s webpage here. Here’s some ad copy for his recently released book:
The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent responses by the U.S. federal government have raised fundamental questions about civil liberties in both domestic and international laws. As a result, the U.S. judiciary, out of its responsibility for interpreting the Constitution, has assumed a crucial role in defining boundaries of domestic and foreign policy, and in balancing concerns about security with the protection of liberty. Utilizing a sophisticated blend of quantitative and qualitative analysis, Kirk A. Randazzo examines two main questions: To what extent do federal judges defend liberty or champion security when adjudicating disputes? And to what extent does the hierarchal structure of the federal judiciary influence decisions by lower court judges? There are, he argues, disturbing indications that the federal judiciary as a whole are not defenders of liberty. Furthermore, lower court judges strategically anticipate the decisions of higher courts and constrain their behavior to avoid reversal.
See more on the SUNY Press website.
The Monkey Cage has an interesting post on this relationship – here’s an excerpt:
Of course the economy is not the only important factor. But it gets far less attention than it deserves when the hand-wringing begins. So, sure, perhaps we can and should tinker with the political process. Clip lobbyists’ wings. Get leaders to make nicey-nicey with the opposite party. But the process is less important than outcomes. More people will trust the government again when times are good, even if government ain’t.
See the rest of the post here. I’d be willing to trust in government more for some real income increase – that and maybe changing a few other things that annoy me 
Want to get elected? Get the power of Google behind you – just ask Scott Brown of Massachusetts. As elections become increasingly web dependent, Google is poised to be a power player and offers some compelling advantages given its top spot in the search engine marketplace. See more on this on Madisonian.net blog. Want more? Check out the Google Policy Blog’s top 5 strategies for political campaigns: Continue reading
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Posted in Data, Jeff, Policy, politics, Pop Culture, Uncategorized
Of interest to those working in our area:
24641 Annual Survey of Jails: Individual Reporting-Level Data, 2007
26382 National Crime Victimization Survey, 2008 [Record-Type Files]
26521 National Corrections Reporting Program, 2004 [United States]
26601 Impact Evaluation of Youth Crime Watch Programs in Three Florida School Districts, 1997-2007
26602 Census of Jail Facilities, 2006
27002 Firearm Injury Surveillance Study, 1993-2007 [United States]
• In 2008, 37 inmates were executed: 18 in Texas; 4 in Virginia; 3 each in Georgia and South Carolina; 2 each in Florida, Mississippi, Ohio, and Oklahoma; and 1 in Kentucky.
• 36 executions were by lethal injection; 1 by electrocution.
• Of persons executed in 2008, 20 were white and 17 were black. All 37 inmates executed were men.
• Thirty-seven states and the federal government had capital statutes at yearend 2008.
• As of November 30, 2009, 48 executions had been carried out, 12 more than the number executed as of the same date in 2008.
• Between 1977 and 2008, 7,658 people have been under sentence of death. Of these, 15% were executed, 5% died from causes other than execution, and 38% received other dispositions.
• A total of 111 inmates were received under sentence of death during 2008, representing the smallest number of admissions since 1973.
• A total of 119 inmates were removed from under sentence of death—37 were executed and 82 were removed by other methods, including sentences or convictions overturned, commutations of sentence, and deaths by means other than execution.
And lest we forget how important capital punishment studies have been in advancing political science, an oldie-but-goodie from Bob Erickson
Findings in this report are the first estimates of crime against people with disabilities measured by the NCVS, administered by the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS). The NCVS adopted questions from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS) to identify respondents who had a disability. Disability is defined as a long-lasting (six months or more) sensory, physical, mental, or emo- tional condition that makes it difficult for a person to per- form daily living activities. The NCVS questions identified six types of disabilities: sensory, physical, cognitive func- tioning, self-care, go-outside-the-home, and employment.
And they find:
Persons age 12 or older with disabilities experienced approximately 716,000 nonfatal violent crimes and 2.3 mil- lion property crimes in 2007 as measured by the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). Nonfatal violent crimes include rape, sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault, and simple assault. Property crimes include household burglary, motor vehicle theft, and property theft.*
About one third (34%) of the crimes against persons with or without a disability in 2007 were serious violent crimes (rape/sexual assault, robbery, or aggravated assault). Per- sons with disabilities were victims of about 47,000 rapes, 79,000 robberies, 114,000 aggravated assaults, and 476,000 simple assaults.
Here’s a lit review on crime against people with disabilities, albeit with a Canadian angle.
If you can pry yourself away from C-Span and the healthcare debate for a moment, the NYT Magazine has an article this week that addresses, arguably, an even more fundamental aspect of medicine – how it’s performed and how care decisions are made. The recent rise in interest in “evidence based medicine” has been perhaps curiously controversial (at least to me) since the inverse situation would seem to be “non-evidence based medicine”. Okay, to be fair, it would more likely be “intuition and personal experience”.
Washington University professor Andrew Martin and his collaborators have recently released their US Supreme Court Database website. It updates, enhances, and streamlines Spaeth’s original data set. This project looks to be a significant development in the field and a very useful and reliable resource for law and courts scholars interested in studying SCOTUS. The website can be found here, and Andrew’s formal announcement is available below the fold.
Dear Voir Dire readers, please join me in welcoming professor Melinda Gann Hall to our blog. While she needs no introduction, I’ll provide a little bio information for anyone who is doesn’t follow law and courts or state politics work and is therefore unfamiliar with her scholarship. Melinda earned her Ph.D. at the University of New Orleans in 1983 and is now Professor and Distinguished Faculty at Michigan State University, department of political science.
Her publications, awards, and professional leadership positions are too numerous to list here, but you can find her vitae here. She (along with Chris Bonneau) has recently penned a book, In Defense of Judicial Elections and she is also a co-creator (with Paul Brace) of the well-known State Supreme Court Data Project, funded by NSF. We look forward to her posts and I am sure that you will enjoy her insights.
Richard Florida blogs on the geography of income change.
On the other hand, two states saw income losses of 10 percent or more – Vermont (-10.3 percent) and New Jersey (-10.1 percent); and incomes declined by more than five percent in two others – Georgia (-6.4 percent) and Tennessee (- 5.1 percent).
Ouch. Florida and California took big hits, too, but the hits were small relative to the base. Imagine if those states took sizeable income hits – and then the impending Option ARM crisis happened? Yikes, we’d be looking at >40% foreclosures in that market segment, and 40% is bad enough.
David Law (Washington University Law School) and David Zaring (University of Pennsylvania Legal Studies Department) have recently posted “Why Supreme Court Justices Cite Legislative History: An Empirical Investigation” on SSRN. Law presented this paper on our panel at the Western Political Science Association Conference in Vancouver and it sounds like a very interesting project. The abstract if available below the fold.
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