A decline in the legal profession?

On the Volokh Conspiracy Blog there’s a discussion on the coming law firm hiring crises. They examine the odd situations that law firms have essentially made for themselves in which they lay off their existing associate attorneys while at the same time interviewing and hiring a crop of brand new graduates – not exactly moneyball, or common sense, although I could see exceptions to this rule (e.g. using the downturn in the economy as an excuse to clear house of poorly performing associates). Perhaps more interesting was the VC’s take on what all of this firing and hiring might have for law schools and legal employment for new graduates:

What does this mean for law schools? I suspect it will become even more difficult to place students with legal employers. This, in turn, will have a big impact on debt-laden students. One big question is whether it will discourage prospective students from entering law school. After all, piling on the debt doesn’t seem like such a good deal if it won’t be easy to get a well-paying job. And student loans don’t seem as easy to come by now as they were before either. In short, law schools may soon feel more of the crunch that law firms, young lawyers, and graduating students are feeling now.

These concerns come at about the same time that a recent study indicates that 76% of young lawyers report  that they are either moderately or extremely satisfied with their decision to become an attorney. I have to assume that this is a high degree of occupational satisfaction, although I don’t have other studies to compare it to.  So, the pending crises doesn’t seem to manifest itself in widespread “buyer’s remorse” on the sometimes rather pricey Juris Doctorate. A couple points on these trends:

First, as long as universities and colleges keep pumping out history, political science, and similar majors there will be no shortage of people desiring to go to law school. Unless the market for history and political science repair shops really takes off in the near future, these students typically find themselves in the same situation as Richard Gere’s officer in training character in “An Officer and a Gentleman” who exclaimed “I got nowhere else to go!” Graduate programs can only absorb so many of these majors and most of them don’t want to go to grad school anyway. 

Second, law schools do need to be more up front about realistic job prospects an earning potential. Average alumni salary reports taken from self selecting respondents who are happy to report their success are not a good idea. Getting more realistic figures would be hard, however a simple disclaimer outlining the pitfalls of self selection reporting might suffice.  I seriously doubt that any of this would dissuade people from applying – everyone believes that they will ultimately be in the top 10% and make it big – it’s like casinos or young actors in Hollywood. 

Finally, I’m not sure that law schools are getting a fair rap in this situation. Yes, students run up a high tuition debt in law school, but compare them against graduate students. The latter typically spend at least twice as many years in their program and while tuition is usually waived, they have twice as many years off of the salary earning market and twice as many years likely going into debt to cover living costs (unless they have a great stipend package). These costs must be considered against their probability of gaining a tenure track position in academia (and how much such a position pays). Sure, Ph.D.s can get positions outside of academia, but J.D.s can also get jobs outside of the legal profession. All of this is to say that graduate and professional education is always a bit of crapshoot. A person gambles their loss in income, possibly tuition costs, and effort expended for the possibility of greater opportunities down the road – often a good way down the road. All programs need to provide accurate information on realistic career opportunities, but students have some influence on their respective career paths.